Cesena 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Frosinone at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cesena host Frosinone at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cesena's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Frosinone — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Frosinone away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cesena at 1.40 PPG versus Frosinone's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cesena have won 0, Frosinone 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–3 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cesena trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Frosinone trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 59% versus Frosinone 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 41% | Frosinone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.07 xG and Frosinone 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.873 / defence 0.998 | Frosinone attack 0.934 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.174. Data: 32 Cesena games / 32 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 33% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 34%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Frosinone 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cesena 50% | Frosinone 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 33% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Cesena 1.07 / Frosinone 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.873 / def 0.998 | Frosinone attack 0.934 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Frosinone xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Frosinone kick off?
Cesena vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Frosinone?
Cesena 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Cesena vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Frosinone part of?
Cesena vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 33% chance of winning, Frosinone a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cesena and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Cesena 0W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Cesena and Frosinone in?
Cesena (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.87x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
33%
3.03
33%
3.04
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.17
1.09
Frosinone xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cesena and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cesena and 1.09 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cesena's recent record stands at 11W 10D 11L from 32 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 11L across 32 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.34 PPG, Frosinone on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cesena have managed 6W 6D 3L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Frosinone's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cesena are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.00 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 11W 10D 11L in their last 32 games (1.34 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Frosinone away?
Cesena's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.60 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cesena's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cesena
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 0, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Cesena 2-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 53%, Frosinone 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cesena) and 40% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Frosinone in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cesena's recent matches and 53% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cesena vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cesena's recent games and 40% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Frosinone tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.07 xG and Frosinone 1.09 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Frosinone attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 33% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 34%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 41%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.34 PPG, Frosinone 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.