Cesena vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Benevento travel to Stadio Dino Manuzzi to take on Cesena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cesena's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Dino Manuzzi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Benevento — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benevento are 0.57 PPG ahead (1.57 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cesena, 1 for Benevento and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cesena trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Benevento trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cesena 86% and Benevento 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cesena 29% | Benevento 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.22 xG and Benevento 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.947 / defence 1.086 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 45 Cesena games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 39% | Draw 32% | Benevento 29%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Benevento 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benevento (1.57 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cesena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cesena 90% | Benevento 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 39% | Draw 32% | Benevento 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Cesena 1.22 / Benevento 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.947 / def 1.086 | Benevento attack 0.748 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Cesena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Benevento xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Benevento kick off?
Cesena vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
Where is Cesena vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Benevento part of?
Cesena vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 39% chance of winning, Benevento a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cesena and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Cesena 0W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Cesena and Benevento in?
Cesena (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.95x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.12
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.25
1.02
Benevento xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cesena and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Cesena and 1.02 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cesena's recent record stands at 1W 5D 1L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cesena heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Cesena are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 1W 5D 1L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cesena and Benevento runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Cesena
0
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Benevento?
From 1 meetings on record, Cesena have won 0, Benevento have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Benevento 2-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cesena at 86%, Benevento at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cesena) and 43% (Benevento).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Cesena's games and 57% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cesena's recent games and 43% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Benevento tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Benevento in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.