Carrarese 0-0 Cesena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Carrarese at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carrarese and Cesena meet at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Carrarese's home record at Stadio dei Marmi: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cesena (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cesena away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Carrarese's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Carrarese 1W, Cesena 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Cesena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Carrarese — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cesena — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 47% versus Cesena 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 47% | Cesena 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.62 xG and Cesena 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.026 / defence 0.965 | Cesena attack 0.719 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.084. Data: 74 Carrarese games / 74 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 56% | Draw 29% | Cesena 15%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Cesena 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Carrarese (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 30% | Cesena 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 56% | Draw 29% | Cesena 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Carrarese 1.62 / Cesena 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 1.026 / def 0.965 | Cesena attack 0.719 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Cesena xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Cesena kick off?
Carrarese vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Cesena?
Carrarese 0 - 0 Cesena.
Where is Carrarese vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Cesena part of?
Carrarese vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 56% chance of winning, Cesena a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Carrarese and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cesena?
Record (3 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 0 | Cesena 2W.
What form are Carrarese and Cesena in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Cesena (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 1.03x the league average against Cesena's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.72x) against Carrarese's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
56%
1.78
29%
3.46
15%
6.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.38
0.75
Cesena xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
6.66
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
3%
33.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.75 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Cesena?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carrarese come into this having played 74 games, going 21W 25D 28L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Cesena sit at 1.28 PPG from 74 outings (25W 20D 29L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Carrarese against 1.28 for Cesena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Carrarese's home form reads 17W 12D 8L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cesena have taken 1.16 points per game from 37 outings (12W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carrarese are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.16 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Current Season
Cesena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Cesena in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 21W 25D 28L in their last 74 games (1.19 PPG), while Cesena have gone 25W 20D 29L in their last 74 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Cesena away?
Carrarese's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.70 PPG; Cesena away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cesena in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cesena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
1
Draws
2
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Cesena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Carrarese 0-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Cesena?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 35%, Cesena 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 43% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 35% of games; Cesena in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Carrarese's recent matches and 51% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 43% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Cesena tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Cesena in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 37, as Carrarese and Cesena drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.62 xG and Cesena 0.75 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Cesena attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 56% | Draw 29% | Cesena 15%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 47%, Cesena 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cesena's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.19 PPG, Cesena 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.