Cagliari 2-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cagliari at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Sunday 30 April 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Unipol Domus. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Ternana have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cagliari 0W, Ternana 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Ternana winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 57% versus Ternana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 44% | Ternana 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.34 xG and Ternana 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.077 / defence 0.917 | Ternana attack 0.709 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 0.993. Data: 34 Cagliari games / 72 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 52% | Draw 31% | Ternana 17%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Ternana 5.88. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | Ternana 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 52% | Draw 31% | Ternana 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG Cagliari 1.34 / Ternana 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.077 / def 0.917 | Ternana attack 0.709 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.111 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Ternana xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Ternana kick off?
Cagliari vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Ternana?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Cagliari vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Ternana part of?
Cagliari vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 52% chance of winning, Ternana a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cagliari and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Ternana in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Ternana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.08x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.71x) against Cagliari's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.26
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cagliari xG
Total xG
1.98
0.65
Ternana xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
4%
22.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.65 for Ternana, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari come into this having played 72 games, going 17W 27D 28L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.35 PPG from 72 outings (26W 19D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Cagliari against 1.35 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cagliari's home form reads 12W 12D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 1.08 points per game from 36 outings (9W 12D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.26 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Ternana in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 17W 27D 28L in their last 72 games (1.08 PPG), while Ternana have gone 26W 19D 27L in their last 72 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Ternana away?
Cagliari's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.33 PPG; Ternana away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Ternana in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cagliari
0
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Ternana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Cagliari 2-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Cagliari, 67% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cagliari) and 56% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Ternana in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cagliari's games and 67% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cagliari's recent games and 56% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Ternana tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ternana in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Ternana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Ternana 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.34 xG and Ternana 0.65 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Ternana attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 52% | Draw 31% | Ternana 17%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 44%, Ternana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.08 PPG, Ternana 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.