Cagliari 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Pisa at Unipol Domus in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 4W 1D 5L at Unipol Domus — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cagliari 1.20 PPG, Pisa 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pisa in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 60% versus Pisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Pisa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.34 xG and Pisa 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.878 / defence 1.263 | Pisa attack 1.180 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.076. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Cagliari games / 50 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 26% | Pisa 43%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 70% | Pisa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 26% | Pisa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Cagliari 1.34 / Pisa 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.878 / def 1.263 | Pisa attack 1.180 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Pisa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Pisa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Pisa kick off?
Cagliari vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Pisa?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Cagliari vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Pisa part of?
Cagliari vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 31% chance of winning, Pisa a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cagliari and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Pisa in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Pisa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
31%
3.20
26%
3.89
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.94
1.60
Pisa xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
6%
15.90
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.60 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari's recent record stands at 10W 16D 24L from 50 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 14L across 50 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 6W 7D 12L from 25 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.26 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 10W 16D 24L in their last 50 games (0.92 PPG), while Pisa have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.00 PPG; Pisa away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Pisa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cagliari's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cagliari
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Pisa 3-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 72%, Pisa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Cagliari) and 36% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Cagliari's games and 56% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Cagliari's recent games and 36% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Pisa tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Pisa finished level at 1-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.34 xG and Pisa 1.60 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 1.26 against Pisa attack 1.18 / defence 1.24, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 31% | Draw 26% | Pisa 43%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Pisa 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.