Benevento 0-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Cagliari in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Benevento are significantly better at Stadio Ciro Vigorito than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Benevento against 1.20 for Cagliari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Benevento have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cagliari in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 40% versus Cagliari 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Cagliari 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.49 xG and Cagliari 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.032 / defence 1.004 | Cagliari attack 0.724 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.057. Data: 42 Benevento games / 4 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 54% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 19%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Cagliari 5.26. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Benevento 60% | Cagliari 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 54% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Benevento 1.49 / Cagliari 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.032 / def 1.004 | Cagliari attack 0.724 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Benevento (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cagliari xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Cagliari kick off?
Benevento vs Cagliari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Cagliari?
Benevento 0 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Benevento vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Cagliari part of?
Benevento vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 54% chance of winning, Cagliari a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Benevento and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Cagliari in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Benevento's attack at 1.03x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.72x) against Benevento's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.79
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.25
0.77
Cagliari xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
4%
22.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Benevento and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Benevento and 0.77 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento's recent record stands at 21W 9D 12L from 42 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 21L across 42 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 3W 7D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.90 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Cagliari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 8W 13D 21L in their last 42 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Cagliari away?
Benevento's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.80 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Benevento or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cagliari in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Benevento
0
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Cagliari have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Cagliari 1-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 50%, Cagliari 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Benevento) and 40% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cagliari in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benevento's recent matches and 45% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Benevento's recent games and 40% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Cagliari tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Benevento 0-2 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.49 xG and Cagliari 0.77 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Benevento fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cagliari outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Cagliari attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 54% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 19%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 40%, Cagliari 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.