Benevento vs Avellino – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Avellino at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Avellino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Avellino meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Avellino have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Avellino have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Avellino have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Avellino are 1.27 PPG clear of Benevento in recent Serie B fixtures (1.60 vs 0.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 67% versus Avellino 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 33% | Avellino 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 0.99 xG and Avellino 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.840 / defence 1.168 | Avellino attack 0.934 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Benevento games / 41 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 29% | Draw 28% | Avellino 43%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Avellino 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Avellino are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avellino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 67% | Avellino 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 29% | Draw 28% | Avellino 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Benevento 0.99 / Avellino 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.840 / def 1.168 | Avellino attack 0.934 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Avellino (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Avellino xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Avellino kick off?
Benevento vs Avellino is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Avellino part of?
Benevento vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 29% chance of winning, Avellino a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Benevento and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Avellino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Avellino in?
Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L. Avellino (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benevento's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Avellino's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.93x) against Benevento's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
29%
3.44
28%
3.52
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.25
1.26
Avellino xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Benevento and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Benevento and 1.26 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Avellino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Avellino by 1.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Avellino in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Avellino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Avellino in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Avellino have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Benevento or Avellino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Avellino in 67%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 67%, Avellino 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Benevento) and 67% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Avellino in 67%; Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Avellino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Benevento's recent matches and 33% of Avellino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Benevento's recent games and 67% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Avellino tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Avellino in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.