Bari 1-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Bari welcome Venezia to Stadio Comunale San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Venezia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Venezia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Bari) versus 1.30 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bari have won 1, Venezia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Bari winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Venezia trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 54% versus Venezia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 46% | Venezia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.36 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.098 / defence 1.216 | Venezia attack 0.995 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.015. Data: 26 Bari games / 26 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 39% | Draw 29% | Venezia 33%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Venezia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bari 50% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 39% | Draw 29% | Venezia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Bari 1.36 / Venezia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.098 / def 1.216 | Venezia attack 0.995 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Bari (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Venezia xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Venezia kick off?
Bari vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 March 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Venezia?
Bari 1 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Bari vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Venezia part of?
Bari vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 39% chance of winning, Venezia a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bari and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Bari and Venezia in?
Bari (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.10) and Venezia's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.51
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bari xG
Total xG
2.59
1.23
Venezia xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bari and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bari and 1.23 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bari come into this having played 26 games, going 11W 10D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.12 PPG from 26 outings (7W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bari's home form reads 4W 5D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.33 points per game from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.12 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Venezia in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 11W 10D 5L in their last 26 games (1.65 PPG), while Venezia have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Venezia away?
Bari's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.42 PPG; Venezia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bari or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Venezia in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Venezia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Venezia have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
0
Draws
4
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Venezia have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bari 0-3 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 58%, Venezia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bari) and 42% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Bari have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bari's games and 67% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Bari's recent games and 42% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Venezia tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Venezia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Venezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Venezia 1-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.36 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.10 / defence 1.22 against Venezia attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 39% | Draw 29% | Venezia 33%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 46%, Venezia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Venezia's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bari (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.