Bari 0-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Ternana meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bari have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 1W 2D 1L at Stadio Comunale San Nicola — 1.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.25 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this season.
Ternana (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bari register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Ternana in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bari 60% and Ternana 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 50% | Ternana 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.91 xG and Ternana 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.173 / defence 1.350 | Ternana attack 1.340 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.130. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ternana have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Bari games / 48 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 37% | Draw 21% | Ternana 42%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.70 | Draw 4.76 | Ternana 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.96 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Bari 75% | Ternana 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 37% | Draw 21% | Ternana 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Bari 1.91 / Ternana 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.173 / def 1.350 | Ternana attack 1.340 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Ternana (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Bari xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Ternana xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Ternana kick off?
Bari vs Ternana kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Ternana?
Bari 0 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Bari vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Ternana part of?
Bari vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 37% chance of winning, Ternana a 42% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Bari and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Ternana in?
Bari (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Ternana (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bari's attack at 1.17x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.34x) against Bari's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
37%
2.70
21%
4.81
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Bari xG
Total xG
3.96
2.04
Ternana xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.87
Clean Sheet
13%
7.73
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
5%
20.89
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Bari and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Bari and 2.04 for Ternana, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bari's recent record stands at 5W 3D 2L from 10 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 3L across 10 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Bari against 1.90 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bari have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.80 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ternana's away record stands at 3W 0D 1L across 4 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.70 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ternana in 60%.
Defensively: Ternana in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Ternana in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while Ternana have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Ternana away?
Ternana's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.25 PPG; Ternana away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Bari or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Ternana in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 0-3 on 23 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Ternana have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Ternana 0-3 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Ternana?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Bari, 75% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Bari and 75% for Ternana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Bari's games and 75% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bari's matches and 75% of Ternana's.
Do Bari and Ternana tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 11, as Bari and Ternana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.91 xG and Ternana 2.04 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Ternana landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.17 / defence 1.35 against Ternana attack 1.34 / defence 1.21, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 37% | Draw 21% | Ternana 42%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 50%, Ternana 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Ternana's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.80 PPG, Ternana 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.