Bari 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 35%, yet in-form Cremonese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bari vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Cremonese meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bari's home record at Stadio Comunale San Nicola: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio Comunale San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bari, 0 for Cremonese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Bari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bari — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 48% versus Cremonese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 33% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.00 xG and Cremonese 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.854 / defence 0.914 | Cremonese attack 0.817 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.232. Data: 69 Bari games / 31 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 35% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 31%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Cremonese 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bari 40% | Cremonese 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 35% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Bari 1.00 / Cremonese 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.854 / def 0.914 | Cremonese attack 0.817 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Bari (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cremonese xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Cremonese kick off?
Bari vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Cremonese?
Bari 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Bari vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Cremonese part of?
Bari vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 35% chance of winning, Cremonese a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bari and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Bari and Cremonese in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bari's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.82x) against Bari's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
35%
2.85
34%
2.95
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Bari xG
Total xG
1.92
0.92
Cremonese xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Bari and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bari and 0.92 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Bari have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 24W 26D 19L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 21W 20D 28L from 69 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Bari against 1.20 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.56 PPG from 34 outings (13W 14D 7L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 10W 11D 13L from 34 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.10 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 24W 26D 19L in their last 69 games (1.42 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 20D 28L in their last 69 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Cremonese away?
Bari's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.56 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Bari or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cremonese in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bari
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Bari 1-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 47%, Cremonese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bari) and 53% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bari have failed to score in 32% of games; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bari's recent matches and 56% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bari's recent games and 53% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Bari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Bari 1-2 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.00 xG and Cremonese 0.92 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.85 / defence 0.91 against Cremonese attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 35% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 31%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 33%, Cremonese 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.42 PPG, Cremonese 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.