Alessandria 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alessandria at 37%, yet in-form Cosenza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alessandria vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alessandria host Cosenza at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Alessandria have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 outings — a 0.17 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Alessandria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza — All Games: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.67 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cosenza's 1.67 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Alessandria's 0.17 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alessandria register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, Cosenza in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Alessandria in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alessandria 83% and Cosenza 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alessandria 67% | Cosenza 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.38 xG and Cosenza 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.883 / defence 1.432 | Cosenza attack 0.669 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.327. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Alessandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Alessandria games / 6 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 37% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 32%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Cosenza 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alessandria at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cosenza (1.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alessandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 83% | Cosenza 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 37% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Alessandria 1.38 / Cosenza 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.883 / def 1.432 | Cosenza attack 0.669 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Cosenza xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Cosenza kick off?
Alessandria vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Cosenza?
Alessandria 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Alessandria vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Cosenza part of?
Alessandria vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 37% chance of winning, Cosenza a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Alessandria and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alessandria and Cosenza in?
Alessandria (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Cosenza (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alessandria's attack rating (0.88) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Alessandria's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.25
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.66
1.27
Cosenza xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.27 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alessandria come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 1D 5L for 0.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Alessandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cosenza sit at 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Alessandria are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alessandria have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Have Alessandria or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Cosenza in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alessandria
0
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 1, Cosenza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Cosenza 2-1 Alessandria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Alessandria at 83%, Cosenza at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Alessandria) and 33% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Alessandria's games and 50% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alessandria vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Alessandria's recent games and 33% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Cosenza tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alessandria edge out Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.38 xG and Cosenza 1.27 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.88 / defence 1.43 against Cosenza attack 0.67 / defence 1.44, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 37% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 32%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 67%, Cosenza 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.17. Form was overturned, with Alessandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alessandria conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.