Udinese 3-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Udinese face Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Venezia travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese in Serie A (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Udinese have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Venezia — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Udinese) versus 0.80 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Udinese have won 2, Venezia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2024, ended Udinese 2–3 Venezia — a Venezia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 63%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 58% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 43% | Venezia 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 63% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.40 xG and Venezia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.865 / defence 1.059 | Venezia attack 0.688 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.330. Venezia's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Udinese's last 60 games and Venezia's last 22.
Result probabilities: Udinese 44% | Draw 32% | Venezia 24%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.25 | Draw 3.12 | Venezia 4.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 23 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 44% | Draw 32% | Venezia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Udinese 1.40 / Venezia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.865 / def 1.059 | Venezia attack 0.688 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Udinese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Venezia xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Venezia kick off?
Udinese vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Venezia?
Udinese 3 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Udinese vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Venezia part of?
Udinese vs Venezia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 44% chance of winning, Venezia a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Udinese and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Udinese vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.86) and Venezia's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 60 games and Venezia's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
44%
2.25
32%
3.12
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.37
0.97
Venezia xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Udinese and 0.97 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 13W 24D 23L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 25W 13D 22L from 60 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Udinese have posted 0.93 PPG from their last 30 home games (5W 13D 12L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 8W 8D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.45 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Venezia
Blended
Udinese (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Udinese vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Venezia in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 13W 24D 23L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.93 PPG; Venezia away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2021, when Udinese won Udinese 3-0 Venezia.
Udinese's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Udinese
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Venezia?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 3, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Venezia 2-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Venezia?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 60%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Udinese) and 63% (Venezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 27% of games; Venezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Venezia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Udinese's games and 50% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Udinese and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Udinese's matches and 63% of Venezia's.
Do Udinese and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Udinese's recent matches and 60% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Venezia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Venezia 3-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.40 xG and Venezia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Venezia attack 0.69 / defence 1.20, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 44% | Draw 32% | Venezia 24%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 43%, Venezia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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