Udinese 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Lecce travel to Dacia Arena to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 November 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 4W 2D 4L at Dacia Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dacia Arena this season.
Lecce — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Udinese carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lecce in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 60% versus Lecce 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 58% | Lecce 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.80 xG and Lecce 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.207 / defence 0.921 | Lecce attack 0.743 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.188. Data: 50 Udinese games / 12 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 60% | Draw 24% | Lecce 16%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Lecce 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 60% | Lecce 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 60% | Draw 24% | Lecce 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Udinese 1.80 / Lecce 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.207 / def 0.921 | Lecce attack 0.743 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Udinese (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Lecce xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Lecce kick off?
Udinese vs Lecce kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Lecce?
Udinese 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Udinese vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Lecce part of?
Udinese vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 60% chance of winning, Lecce a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Udinese and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Udinese and Lecce in?
Udinese (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Lecce (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.21) and Lecce's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.09
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.62
0.81
Lecce xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
3%
39.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Udinese and 0.81 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Lecce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 17W 18D 15L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce's form line: 20W 19D 11L from 50 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.38 PPG, Lecce on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (9W 9D 7L).
On the road, Lecce have gone 7W 10D 8L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.36 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Lecce in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 17W 18D 15L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while Lecce have gone 20W 19D 11L in their last 50 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Lecce away?
Udinese's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.44 PPG; Lecce away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Udinese or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lecce in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Lecce runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Udinese
2
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 4, Lecce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Lecce?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Lecce 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Udinese) and 36% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Lecce in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Lecce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Udinese's games and 52% of Lecce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Udinese's recent games and 36% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Lecce tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lecce in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Udinese and Lecce drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.80 xG and Lecce 0.81 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Udinese fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Lecce attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 60% | Draw 24% | Lecce 16%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 58%, Lecce 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.38 PPG, Lecce 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.