Udinese 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Empoli at Dacia Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 4 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's home record at Dacia Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Udinese) versus 1.30 (Empoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Udinese have won 1, Empoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 4–1 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Empoli in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Udinese 62% and Empoli 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 57% | Empoli 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.60 xG and Empoli 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.091 / defence 0.970 | Empoli attack 0.853 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.130. Data: 53 Udinese games / 53 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 52% | Draw 27% | Empoli 21%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 4.76. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 60% | Empoli 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 52% | Draw 27% | Empoli 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Udinese 1.60 / Empoli 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.091 / def 0.970 | Empoli attack 0.853 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Udinese (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Empoli xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Empoli kick off?
Udinese vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Empoli?
Udinese 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Udinese vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Empoli part of?
Udinese vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 52% chance of winning, Empoli a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Udinese and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Udinese and Empoli in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.09) and Empoli's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.69
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.54
0.94
Empoli xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
23.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Udinese and 0.94 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 17W 20D 16L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli's form line: 14W 16D 23L from 53 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.34 PPG, Empoli on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (9W 10D 7L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 7W 9D 10L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.17 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Empoli in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 17W 20D 16L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 16D 23L in their last 53 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Empoli away?
Udinese's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.42 PPG; Empoli away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Empoli runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Udinese won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Udinese
4
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Empoli have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Udinese 3-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Empoli?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 65%, Empoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Udinese) and 35% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Udinese's games and 46% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Udinese's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Empoli tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Empoli in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Udinese and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.60 xG and Empoli 0.94 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 52% | Draw 27% | Empoli 21%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 57%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.34 PPG, Empoli 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.