Udinese 1-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Udinese welcome AS Roma to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Udinese) versus 1.60 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Udinese.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus AS Roma 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | AS Roma 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.80 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.871 / defence 1.117 | AS Roma attack 1.013 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.167. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Udinese games / 60 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 22% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 49%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | AS Roma 2.04. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 50% | AS Roma 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Monday 2 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 22% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Udinese 0.80 / AS Roma 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.871 / def 1.117 | AS Roma attack 1.013 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.32
AS Roma xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs AS Roma kick off?
Udinese vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 2 February 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Udinese 1 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Udinese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs AS Roma part of?
Udinese vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 22% chance of winning, AS Roma a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Udinese and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
Record (9 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 7W.
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Udinese's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
22%
4.45
29%
3.50
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.12
1.32
AS Roma xG
4.45
22%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
6%
16.67
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.9 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Udinese and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Udinese and 1.32 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Udinese come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 13D 27L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.87 PPG from 60 outings (34W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Udinese's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.63 points per game from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.38 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 34W 10D 16L in their last 60 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.23 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Udinese or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AS Roma in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
1
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, AS Roma have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Udinese 1-0 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 47%, AS Roma 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 27% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 43%; Udinese have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Udinese's recent matches and 40% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 27% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and AS Roma tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat AS Roma 1-0 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.80 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.87 / defence 1.12 against AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 0.73, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 22% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 49%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Udinese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, AS Roma 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.