Spezia 1-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 0.78 PPG across 9 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 2.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.44 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 1W 0D 3L from 4 Serie A appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 2.33. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.78 vs 0.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Genoa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Genoa — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 78% and Genoa 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Spezia 89% | Genoa 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.67 xG and Genoa 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.866 / defence 1.233 | Genoa attack 0.832 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.479. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Spezia games / 9 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 41% | Draw 23% | Genoa 35%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Genoa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 75% | Genoa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 41% | Draw 23% | Genoa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Spezia 1.67 / Genoa 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.866 / def 1.233 | Genoa attack 0.832 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Spezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Genoa xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Genoa kick off?
Spezia vs Genoa kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Genoa?
Spezia 1 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Spezia vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Genoa part of?
Spezia vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 41% chance of winning, Genoa a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Spezia and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Genoa in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.44 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.87x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.83x) against Spezia's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
41%
2.41
23%
4.27
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Spezia xG
Total xG
3.18
1.52
Genoa xG
2.41
41%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Spezia and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Spezia and 1.52 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 1D 6L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Spezia against 0.67 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Spezia's home form reads 1W 0D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.56 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Genoa in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Genoa in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.75 PPG; Genoa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Genoa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 9 January 2022, when Genoa 0-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Genoa?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Spezia, 75% for Genoa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Spezia and 75% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Spezia's games and 75% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Spezia's matches and 75% of Genoa's.
Spezia and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Genoa finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.67 xG and Genoa 1.52 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.87 / defence 1.23 against Genoa attack 0.83 / defence 1.43, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 41% | Draw 23% | Genoa 35%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 89% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 89%, Genoa 89%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.78 PPG, Genoa 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.