Spezia 2-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Cremonese at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 0.80 PPG, Cremonese 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cremonese in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 53% versus Cremonese 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 60% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.74 xG and Cremonese 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.054 / defence 1.151 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.160. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Spezia games / 9 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 49% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 24%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 4.17. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 60% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 49% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Spezia 1.74 / Cremonese 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.054 / def 1.151 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Spezia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cremonese xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Cremonese kick off?
Spezia vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Cremonese?
Spezia 2 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Spezia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Cremonese part of?
Spezia vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 49% chance of winning, Cremonese a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Spezia and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Cremonese in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.05) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.72
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.89
1.15
Cremonese xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
4%
23.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Spezia and 1.15 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 12W 8D 27L from 47 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 15L across 47 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 7W 5D 11L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 9W 5D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.36 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 12W 8D 27L in their last 47 games (0.94 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 12D 15L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.13 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Cremonese runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2023, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Spezia
3
Draws
5
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cremonese?
From 8 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Cremonese have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Spezia 2-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 61%, Cremonese 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Spezia) and 52% (Cremonese).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Spezia's games and 61% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Spezia's recent games and 52% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Cremonese tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Cremonese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Cremonese finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.74 xG and Cremonese 1.15 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 49% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 24%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 60%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.