Sassuolo 1-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Genoa travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Thursday 6 January 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 3W 3D 4L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genoa — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sassuolo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sassuolo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Genoa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sassuolo, 0 for Genoa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Genoa trading profile (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 79% and Genoa 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 84% | Genoa 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.46 xG and Genoa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.894 / defence 1.269 | Genoa attack 0.679 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.495. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Sassuolo games / 19 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 41% | Draw 25% | Genoa 33%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Genoa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 60% | Genoa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 41% | Draw 25% | Genoa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Sassuolo 1.46 / Genoa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.894 / def 1.269 | Genoa attack 0.679 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Genoa xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Genoa kick off?
Sassuolo vs Genoa kicked off at 15:30 on Thursday 6 January 2022 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Sassuolo 1 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Sassuolo vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Genoa part of?
Sassuolo vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 41% chance of winning, Genoa a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sassuolo and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Genoa (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
41%
2.42
25%
3.93
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.75
1.29
Genoa xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.29 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 6D 7L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 0.58 PPG from 19 outings (1W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sassuolo's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.00 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 8D 10L in their last 19 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Genoa away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.20 PPG; Genoa away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 60%, Genoa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sassuolo and 60% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sassuolo have failed to score in 30% of games; Genoa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sassuolo's games and 60% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sassuolo's matches and 60% of Genoa's.
Do Sassuolo and Genoa tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Genoa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo and Genoa finished level at 1-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.46 xG and Genoa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.89 / defence 1.27 against Genoa attack 0.68 / defence 1.40, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 41% | Draw 25% | Genoa 33%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 84%, Genoa 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.