Sassuolo 0-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Sassuolo have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cagliari have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cagliari's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sassuolo, 1.30 for Cagliari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sassuolo lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Cagliari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cagliari — key trading statistics (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 58% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 58% | Cagliari 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.91 xG and Cagliari 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.949 / defence 1.292 | Cagliari attack 0.710 / defence 1.470. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.194. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.470 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Sassuolo games / 36 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 55% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 20%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Cagliari 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sassuolo (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 60% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 55% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Sassuolo 1.91 / Cagliari 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.949 / def 1.292 | Cagliari attack 0.710 / def 1.470 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cagliari xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Cagliari kick off?
Sassuolo vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Sassuolo 0 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Sassuolo vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Cagliari part of?
Sassuolo vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 55% chance of winning, Cagliari a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sassuolo and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cagliari?
Record (3 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 2W.
What form are Sassuolo and Cagliari in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.71x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.12
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.00
1.09
Cagliari xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
32.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.09 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 19W 17D 38L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Cagliari's form line: 22W 28D 24L from 74 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.27 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.25 PPG from 36 outings (12W 9D 15L).
On the road, Cagliari have gone 5W 14D 17L from 36 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 61%.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 19W 17D 38L in their last 74 games (1.00 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 22W 28D 24L in their last 74 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Cagliari away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.25 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sassuolo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
1
Draws
3
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cagliari?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Cagliari have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Sassuolo 2-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 61%, Cagliari 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sassuolo) and 47% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 31%; Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 44% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sassuolo's recent games and 47% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Cagliari tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Sassuolo 0-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.91 xG and Cagliari 1.09 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sassuolo fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Cagliari outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.95 / defence 1.29 against Cagliari attack 0.71 / defence 1.47, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 55% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 20%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 58%, Cagliari 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.00 PPG, Cagliari 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.