Sassuolo 0-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 3W 3D 3L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 2W 2D 4L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Bologna in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 83% and Bologna 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 83% | Bologna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.62 xG and Bologna 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.984 / defence 1.185 | Bologna attack 0.734 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.435. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Sassuolo games / 18 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 46% | Draw 24% | Bologna 29%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 3.45. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 67% | Bologna 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 46% | Draw 24% | Bologna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Sassuolo 1.62 / Bologna 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.984 / def 1.185 | Bologna attack 0.734 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bologna xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Bologna kick off?
Sassuolo vs Bologna kicked off at 15:30 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Sassuolo 0 - 3 Bologna.
Where is Sassuolo vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Bologna part of?
Sassuolo vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 46% chance of winning, Bologna a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sassuolo and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Bologna (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.73x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.09
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.87
1.25
Bologna xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.25 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sassuolo come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 6D 6L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.33 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sassuolo's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.33 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Bologna have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Bologna away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.38 PPG; Bologna away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Bologna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Sassuolo, 62% for Bologna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sassuolo and 62% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sassuolo's games and 62% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sassuolo's matches and 62% of Bologna's.
Do Sassuolo and Bologna tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bologna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Sassuolo 0-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.62 xG and Bologna 1.25 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sassuolo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bologna outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.98 / defence 1.19 against Bologna attack 0.73 / defence 1.36, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 46% | Draw 24% | Bologna 29%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 83%, Bologna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Bologna's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.33 PPG, Bologna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.