Pisa 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Pisa take on Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Monday 8 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Parma (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Pisa, 1.00 for Parma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Pisa 1W, Parma 2W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 51% versus Parma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 51% | Parma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.59 xG and Parma 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.482 / defence 0.872 | Parma attack 0.834 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.112. Pisa's attack strength of 0.482 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Pisa games / 51 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 24% | Draw 40% | Parma 37%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.17 | Draw 2.50 | Parma 2.70. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.40. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.40 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 17% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 26% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 20% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 24% | Draw 40% | Parma 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 26% | xG Pisa 0.59 / Parma 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.482 / def 0.872 | Parma attack 0.834 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Parma xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Parma kick off?
Pisa vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Parma?
Pisa 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Pisa vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Parma part of?
Pisa vs Parma is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 24% chance of winning, Parma a 37% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Pisa and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Parma?
Record (6 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 3 | Parma 2W.
What form are Pisa and Parma in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.48) and Parma's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.83x) against Pisa's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 26.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.24
40%
2.51
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.40
0.81
Parma xG
4.24
24%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.89
74%
BTTS No
1.35
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
55%
1.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.6 | 19.9 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.2%.
How many goals are Pisa and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Pisa and 0.81 for Parma, a combined total of 1.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 15D 13L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 0.92 PPG from 51 outings (9W 20D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 14W 6D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (3W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.04 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Parma in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 games (1.65 PPG), while Parma have gone 9W 20D 22L in their last 51 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Parma away?
Pisa's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.92 PPG; Parma away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Pisa
3
Draws
4
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Parma?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Parma have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Parma 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Parma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 44%, Parma 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pisa) and 52% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pisa have failed to score in 32% of games; Parma in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pisa's recent matches and 56% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pisa's recent games and 52% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Pisa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.59 xG and Parma 0.81 xG, a combined 1.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.48 / defence 0.87 against Parma attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 24% | Draw 40% | Parma 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 42% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 51%, Parma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Parma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.