Parma 0-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Cagliari at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Parma haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cagliari haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Parma at 1.10 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Cagliari have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Parma.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cagliari have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 40% versus Cagliari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 29% | Cagliari 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.26 xG and Cagliari 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.928 / defence 1.020 | Cagliari attack 0.942 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.180. Data: 38 Parma games / 38 Cagliari games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 33%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Cagliari 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Cagliari 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Parma 1.26 / Cagliari 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.928 / def 1.020 | Cagliari attack 0.942 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Parma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Cagliari xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cagliari kick off?
Parma vs Cagliari kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Parma 0 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Parma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cagliari part of?
Parma vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 39% chance of winning, Cagliari a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Parma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
Record (8 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 3 | Cagliari 4W.
What form are Parma and Cagliari in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.61
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Parma xG
Total xG
2.39
1.13
Cagliari xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Parma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Parma and 1.13 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma's recent record stands at 11W 12D 15L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. Parma haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 17L across 38 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. Cagliari haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.18 PPG, Cagliari on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Parma have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.05 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Pre-Season
Cagliari
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cagliari away?
Parma's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.11 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Parma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cagliari in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Parma
3
Draws
5
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
From 9 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Cagliari have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Parma 0-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 47%, Cagliari 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Parma) and 63% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 37% of games; Cagliari in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Parma's games and 63% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Parma's recent games and 63% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cagliari tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Parma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Parma 0-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.26 xG and Cagliari 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Parma fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Cagliari attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 33%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 29%, Cagliari 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.18 PPG, Cagliari 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.