Parma 1-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Bologna at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Parma, 0 for Bologna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bologna trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 60% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 49% | Bologna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.08 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.857 / defence 0.895 | Bologna attack 1.058 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.056. Data: 47 Parma games / 47 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 35% | Draw 33% | Bologna 31%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Bologna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Parma 40% | Bologna 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 35% | Draw 33% | Bologna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Parma 1.08 / Bologna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.857 / def 0.895 | Bologna attack 1.058 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Parma (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Bologna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Bologna kick off?
Parma vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Bologna?
Parma 1 - 3 Bologna.
Where is Parma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Bologna part of?
Parma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 35% chance of winning, Bologna a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Parma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 1 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Parma and Bologna in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.86x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
35%
2.83
33%
3.00
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Parma xG
Total xG
2.08
1.00
Bologna xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Parma and 1.00 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 47 games, going 8W 19D 20L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.64 PPG from 47 outings (20W 17D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 6W 8D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.49 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Bologna in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 8W 19D 20L in their last 47 games (0.91 PPG), while Bologna have gone 20W 17D 10L in their last 47 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.13 PPG; Bologna away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Parma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bologna in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Bologna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Bologna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Bologna?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 65%, Bologna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Parma) and 52% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 26% of games; Bologna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Parma's games and 52% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Parma's recent games and 52% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Bologna tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bologna in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Parma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Parma 1-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.08 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.86 / defence 0.90 against Bologna attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 35% | Draw 33% | Bologna 31%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 49%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.