Napoli 3-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona plays host to Napoli versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Napoli (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Napoli's favour (2.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Napoli, 0 for Bologna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Napoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 53% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 55% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.98 xG and Bologna 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.250 / defence 0.853 | Bologna attack 0.872 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.157. Data: 47 Napoli games / 47 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 62% | Draw 24% | Bologna 14%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 60% | Bologna 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 62% | Draw 24% | Bologna 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Napoli 1.98 / Bologna 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.250 / def 0.853 | Bologna attack 0.872 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Napoli (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bologna xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Bologna kick off?
Napoli vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Bologna?
Napoli 3 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Napoli vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Bologna part of?
Napoli vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 62% chance of winning, Bologna a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Napoli and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): Napoli 2W | Draws 0 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Napoli and Bologna in?
Napoli (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Napoli's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.87x) against Napoli's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.09
14%
7.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.84
0.86
Bologna xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
7.23
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
52.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Napoli and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Napoli and 0.86 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Napoli's recent record stands at 31W 9D 7L from 47 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 20L across 47 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 14W 4D 5L from 23 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 4W 7D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Napoli are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.11 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Bologna in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 31W 9D 7L in their last 47 games (2.17 PPG), while Bologna have gone 13W 14D 20L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Bologna away?
Napoli's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.00 PPG; Bologna away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Napoli or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bologna in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Napoli
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Napoli 2-3 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Bologna?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 48%, Bologna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Napoli) and 56% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bologna in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Napoli's recent matches and 52% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Napoli's recent games and 56% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Bologna tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bologna in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Bologna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Bologna 3-2 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.98 xG and Bologna 0.86 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Bologna attack 0.87 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 62% | Draw 24% | Bologna 14%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 55%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.