Monza 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Frosinone travel to U-Power Stadium to take on Monza. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Monza have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Monza's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at U-Power Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Monza) versus 0.90 (Frosinone). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Monza register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Frosinone in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Monza, 1 for Frosinone and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2024, ended 3–2 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 49% versus Frosinone 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 43% | Frosinone 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.72 xG and Frosinone 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.002 / defence 1.265 | Frosinone attack 0.747 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.200. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Monza games / 36 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 50% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 24%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Frosinone 4.17. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monza 60% | Frosinone 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 50% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Monza 1.72 / Frosinone 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.002 / def 1.265 | Frosinone attack 0.747 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Monza (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Frosinone xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Frosinone kick off?
Monza vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Frosinone?
Monza 0 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Monza vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Frosinone part of?
Monza vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 50% chance of winning, Frosinone a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Monza and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Monza 2W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Monza and Frosinone in?
Monza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Frosinone (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Monza's attack at 1.00x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.85
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Monza xG
Total xG
2.85
1.13
Frosinone xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
4%
23.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Monza and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Monza and 1.13 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza's recent record stands at 25W 22D 27L from 74 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 31W 19D 24L across 74 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.31 PPG, Frosinone on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monza have managed 13W 11D 13L from 37 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Frosinone's away record stands at 10W 12D 15L across 37 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.43 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 25W 22D 27L in their last 74 games (1.31 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 31W 19D 24L in their last 74 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Frosinone away?
Monza's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.35 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Monza or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Frosinone in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Frosinone runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Frosinone won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monza's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Monza
1
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 3, Frosinone have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Monza 2-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Frosinone?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Frosinone 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Monza) and 46% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Frosinone in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Monza's games and 57% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Monza's recent games and 46% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Frosinone tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Monza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Monza 0-1 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.72 xG and Frosinone 1.13 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Monza fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.00 / defence 1.26 against Frosinone attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 50% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 24%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 43%, Frosinone 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.31 PPG, Frosinone 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.