Lecce 1-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Lecce welcome Cremonese to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lecce — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lecce have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lecce have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lecce are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Lecce have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lecce register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cremonese in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lecce have won 1, Cremonese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Lecce winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lecce in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 56% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 42% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.26 xG and Cremonese 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.759 / defence 1.177 | Cremonese attack 0.892 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.142. Lecce's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Lecce games / 7 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 36% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 33%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 60% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 36% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Lecce 1.26 / Cremonese 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.759 / def 1.177 | Cremonese attack 0.892 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Lecce (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Cremonese kick off?
Lecce vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Cremonese?
Lecce 1 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Lecce vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Cremonese part of?
Lecce vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 36% chance of winning, Cremonese a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lecce and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Lecce 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Lecce and Cremonese in?
Lecce (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Cremonese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.76) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
36%
2.78
31%
3.20
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.46
1.20
Cremonese xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lecce and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lecce and 1.20 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecce's recent record stands at 20W 17D 8L from 45 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lecce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 14L across 45 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 1.71 PPG, Cremonese on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 13W 7D 2L from 22 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 9W 4D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.38 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 20W 17D 8L in their last 45 games (1.71 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Cremonese away?
Lecce's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.09 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Lecce or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cremonese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Cremonese runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lecce's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lecce
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Lecce have won 3, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Cremonese?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 59%, Cremonese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lecce) and 54% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lecce's games and 59% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecce vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lecce's recent games and 54% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Cremonese tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Cremonese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Cremonese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.26 xG and Cremonese 1.20 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against Cremonese attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 36% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 33%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 42%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.71 PPG, Cremonese 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.