Lecce 0-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AS Roma make the trip to Stadio Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 6 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Lecce (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Lecce have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, AS Roma in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, AS Roma have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Lecce's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 38% versus AS Roma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 38% | AS Roma 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.78 xG and AS Roma 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.748 / defence 1.013 | AS Roma attack 0.885 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.122. Lecce's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Lecce games / 56 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 27% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 40%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | AS Roma 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Lecce's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 30% | AS Roma 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Via del Mare • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 27% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Lecce 0.78 / AS Roma 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.748 / def 1.013 | AS Roma attack 0.885 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.01
AS Roma xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs AS Roma kick off?
Lecce vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 6 January 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs AS Roma?
Lecce 0 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Lecce vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs AS Roma part of?
Lecce vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 27% chance of winning, AS Roma a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Lecce and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 4W.
What form are Lecce and AS Roma in?
Lecce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lecce's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.89x) against Lecce's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
27%
3.65
33%
3.05
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Lecce xG
Total xG
1.78
1.01
AS Roma xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Lecce and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Lecce and 1.01 for AS Roma, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Lecce have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 12W 15D 28L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 31W 8D 16L from 55 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecce.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (6W 9D 12L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 6D 9L from 27 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lecce are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.38 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 12W 15D 28L in their last 55 games (0.93 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 31W 8D 16L in their last 55 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.00 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Lecce or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, AS Roma in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Lecce
2
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma?
From 9 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, AS Roma have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Lecce 0-4 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecce see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 37%, AS Roma 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lecce) and 30% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 37%; Lecce have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Lecce's recent matches and 44% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lecce's recent games and 30% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and AS Roma tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lecce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Lecce 0-2 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.78 xG and AS Roma 1.01 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against AS Roma attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 27% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 40%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 38%, AS Roma 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.