Juventus 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Juventus face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 12 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventus have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 8W 2D 0L at Allianz Stadium — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium.
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Juventus. A 1.50 PPG lead over Udinese (2.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Juventus have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Udinese managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Juventus winning.
The historical record gives Juventus a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 34% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 36% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.61 xG and Udinese 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.029 / defence 0.683 | Udinese attack 0.866 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.119. Juventus's defence rating of 0.683 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Juventus games / 61 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 59% | Draw 28% | Udinese 14%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.69 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 40% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 59% | Draw 28% | Udinese 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Juventus 1.61 / Udinese 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.029 / def 0.683 | Udinese attack 0.866 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Juventus (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Udinese xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Udinese kick off?
Juventus vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 12 February 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Udinese?
Juventus 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Juventus vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Udinese part of?
Juventus vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 59% chance of winning, Udinese a 14% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Juventus and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Udinese?
Record (5 meetings): Juventus 4W | Draws 1 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Juventus and Udinese in?
Juventus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Udinese (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.03x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.87x) against Juventus's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
59%
1.70
28%
3.63
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.27
0.66
Udinese xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
3%
36.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Juventus and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Juventus and 0.66 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Juventus have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 38W 11D 12L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 13W 26D 22L from 61 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.30 PPG from 30 outings (21W 6D 3L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 6W 10D 14L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.15 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Udinese in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 38W 11D 12L in their last 61 games (2.05 PPG), while Udinese have gone 13W 26D 22L in their last 61 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Udinese away?
Juventus's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.30 PPG; Udinese away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Juventus or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Udinese in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Juventus have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Juventus
1
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 8, Udinese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Udinese?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 37%, Udinese 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Juventus) and 43% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Udinese in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Juventus's recent matches and 47% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Juventus's recent games and 43% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Udinese tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Udinese in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Juventus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Juventus 0-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.61 xG and Udinese 0.66 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juventus fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.03 / defence 0.68 against Udinese attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 59% | Draw 28% | Udinese 14%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Udinese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 36%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.