Juventus 3-0 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Lazio travel to Allianz Stadium to take on Juventus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium.
Lazio — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Juventus) versus 2.20 (Lazio). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Juventus, 0 for Lazio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Lazio trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 46% versus Lazio 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 35% | Lazio 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.12 xG and Lazio 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.292 / defence 0.661 | Lazio attack 1.401 / defence 0.623. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.128. Juventus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lazio's defence strength of 0.623 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Lazio have an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — the away xG of 1.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Juventus's defence rating of 0.661 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Juventus games / 52 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 36% | Draw 32% | Lazio 32%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Lazio 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 50% | Lazio 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 36% | Draw 32% | Lazio 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Juventus 1.12 / Lazio 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.292 / def 0.661 | Lazio attack 1.401 / def 0.623 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Juventus (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Lazio xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Lazio kick off?
Juventus vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Lazio?
Juventus 3 - 0 Lazio.
Where is Juventus vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Lazio part of?
Juventus vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 36% chance of winning, Lazio a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Juventus and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Lazio?
Record (2 meetings): Juventus 1W | Draws 1 | Lazio 0W.
What form are Juventus and Lazio in?
Juventus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lazio (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.29x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.13
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.17
1.04
Lazio xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Juventus and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Juventus and 1.04 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 28W 14D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio's form line: 27W 13D 12L from 52 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.88 PPG, Lazio on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.08 PPG from 25 outings (15W 7D 3L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 12W 6D 7L from 25 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.98 scored and 1.27 conceded. Lazio's attacking output running into Juventus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Lazio in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 28W 14D 10L in their last 52 games (1.88 PPG), while Lazio have gone 27W 13D 12L in their last 52 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Lazio away?
Juventus's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.08 PPG; Lazio away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Juventus or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Lazio in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Juventus won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventus's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
3
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Lazio have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Juventus 2-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Lazio?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 40%, Lazio 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Juventus) and 72% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Lazio in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Juventus's recent matches and 52% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Juventus's recent games and 72% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Lazio tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lazio in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Juventus run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lazio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Lazio 3-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.12 xG and Lazio 1.04 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Juventus beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lazio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.29 / defence 0.66 against Lazio attack 1.40 / defence 0.62, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 36% | Draw 32% | Lazio 32%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 35%, Lazio 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lazio's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.88 PPG, Lazio 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.