Juventus 2-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Juventus at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Lazio travel to Allianz Stadium to take on Juventus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lazio — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Juventus carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Juventus, 3 for Lazio and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Lazio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Lazio trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 48% versus Lazio 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 43% | Lazio 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.29 xG and Lazio 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.495 / defence 0.761 | Lazio attack 0.695 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.195. Juventus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.495 — their λ of 1.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lazio's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Juventus's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Juventus games / 61 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 53% | Draw 29% | Lazio 18%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Lazio 5.56. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Lazio's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 60% | Lazio 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 53% | Draw 29% | Lazio 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 34% | xG Juventus 1.29 / Lazio 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.495 / def 0.761 | Lazio attack 0.695 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Juventus (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Lazio xG
34%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Lazio kick off?
Juventus vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Lazio?
Juventus 2 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Juventus vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Lazio part of?
Juventus vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 53% chance of winning, Lazio a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Juventus and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Lazio?
Record (9 meetings): Juventus 4W | Draws 2 | Lazio 3W.
What form are Juventus and Lazio in?
Juventus (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Lazio (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.50x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
53%
1.90
29%
3.40
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Juventus xG
Total xG
1.93
0.63
Lazio xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Juventus and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Juventus and 0.63 for Lazio, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 31W 22D 8L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio's form line: 26W 19D 16L from 61 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.89 PPG, Lazio on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.17 PPG from 30 outings (18W 11D 1L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 14W 6D 10L from 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.39 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Lazio in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 31W 22D 8L in their last 61 games (1.89 PPG), while Lazio have gone 26W 19D 16L in their last 61 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Lazio away?
Juventus's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.17 PPG; Lazio away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Juventus or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lazio in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Juventus won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventus's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
3
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Lazio have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Juventus 2-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Lazio?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 43%, Lazio 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Juventus) and 40% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Lazio in 43%; Lazio in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Juventus's recent matches and 33% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Juventus's recent games and 40% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Lazio tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lazio in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Lazio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus and Lazio finished level at 2-2 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.29 xG and Lazio 0.63 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lazio outscored their 0.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.50 / defence 0.76 against Lazio attack 0.69 / defence 0.70, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 53% | Draw 29% | Lazio 18%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 43%, Lazio 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.89 PPG, Lazio 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.