Juventus 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventus host AS Roma at Allianz Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 6W 3D 1L at Allianz Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Juventus are significantly better at Allianz Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juventus at 1.50 PPG versus AS Roma's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Juventus, 0 for AS Roma and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 4–3 with Juventus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Juventus in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 52% versus AS Roma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 38% | AS Roma 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.34 xG and AS Roma 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.150 / defence 0.797 | AS Roma attack 1.039 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.171. Juventus's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Juventus games / 40 AS Roma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juventus 43% | Draw 32% | AS Roma 25%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | AS Roma 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 40% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 43% | Draw 32% | AS Roma 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Juventus 1.34 / AS Roma 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.150 / def 0.797 | AS Roma attack 1.039 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Juventus (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.97
AS Roma xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs AS Roma kick off?
Juventus vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs AS Roma?
Juventus 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Juventus vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs AS Roma part of?
Juventus vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 43% chance of winning, AS Roma a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Juventus and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Juventus 2W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 0W.
What form are Juventus and AS Roma in?
Juventus (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juventus's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
43%
2.32
32%
3.16
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.31
0.97
AS Roma xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Juventus and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Juventus and 0.97 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventus come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 11D 8L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.72 PPG from 40 outings (20W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.85 PPG, AS Roma on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juventus's home form reads 11W 5D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.52 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; AS Roma in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 21W 11D 8L in their last 40 games (1.85 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or AS Roma away?
Juventus's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.90 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Juventus or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AS Roma in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventus and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
5
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, AS Roma have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when AS Roma 3-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and AS Roma?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 40%, AS Roma 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Juventus) and 55% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Juventus's recent matches and 55% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Juventus's recent games and 55% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and AS Roma tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Juventus and AS Roma drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.34 xG and AS Roma 0.97 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against AS Roma attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 43% | Draw 32% | AS Roma 25%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 38%, AS Roma 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.85 PPG, AS Roma 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.