Inter 3-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inter at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to Inter versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 23 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Inter are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Inter 1W, AS Roma 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
AS Roma — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 53% versus AS Roma 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 53% | AS Roma 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.51 xG and AS Roma 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.307 / defence 0.907 | AS Roma attack 0.965 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.257. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Inter games / 33 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 45% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 26%. Fair-value odds: Inter 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | AS Roma 3.85. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Inter 40% | AS Roma 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 45% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Inter 1.51 / AS Roma 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.307 / def 0.907 | AS Roma attack 0.965 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Inter (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.10
AS Roma xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs AS Roma kick off?
Inter vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Inter 3 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Inter vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs AS Roma part of?
Inter vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 45% chance of winning, AS Roma a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Inter and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Inter 1W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 0W.
What form are Inter and AS Roma in?
Inter (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Inter's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.96x) against Inter's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.54
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Inter xG
Total xG
2.61
1.10
AS Roma xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Inter and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Inter and 1.10 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Inter have picked up 2.16 PPG on a 20W 9D 3L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 16W 7D 9L from 32 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Roma.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.25 PPG from 16 outings (11W 3D 2L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 7W 3D 6L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inter are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.59 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; AS Roma in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 20W 9D 3L in their last 32 games (2.16 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 16W 7D 9L in their last 32 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or AS Roma away?
Inter's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.25 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Inter or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, AS Roma in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 0-3 on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Inter
0
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 8, AS Roma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inter and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Inter 5-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Inter and AS Roma?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 50%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Inter) and 56% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Inter's games and 62% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Inter's matches and 56% of AS Roma's.
Do Inter and AS Roma tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat AS Roma 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.51 xG and AS Roma 1.10 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against AS Roma attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 45% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 26%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 53%, AS Roma 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.