Hellas Verona 4-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Spezia travel to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hellas Verona — All Games: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.83 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 1W 1D 4L from 6 Serie A matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spezia's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Serie A this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.67 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hellas Verona at 0.83 PPG versus Spezia's 0.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 83%.
Spezia in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 83% and Spezia 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 83% | Spezia 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 2.10 xG and Spezia 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.099 / defence 1.349 | Spezia attack 0.870 / defence 1.560. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.520. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.560 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Hellas Verona games / 6 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 46% | Draw 21% | Spezia 33%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.17 | Draw 4.76 | Spezia 3.03. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 100% | Spezia 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 46% | Draw 21% | Spezia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Hellas Verona 2.10 / Spezia 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.099 / def 1.349 | Spezia attack 0.870 / def 1.560 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Spezia xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Spezia kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Hellas Verona 4 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Spezia part of?
Hellas Verona vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 46% chance of winning, Spezia a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Hellas Verona and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Spezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Spezia in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Spezia (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
46%
2.19
21%
4.81
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.88
1.78
Spezia xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.71
Clean Sheet
17%
5.96
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
4%
24.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.78 for Spezia, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 0.83 PPG, Spezia on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.67 PPG overall record — Spezia travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.33 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Spezia in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Spezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Spezia in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Spezia have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Spezia away?
Spezia's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.00 PPG; Spezia away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2021, when Hellas Verona won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Spezia?
From 5 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Spezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2023, when Spezia 1-3 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Spezia?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hellas Verona at 100%, Spezia at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Hellas Verona and 100% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hellas Verona's games and 100% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hellas Verona's matches and 100% of Spezia's.
Do Hellas Verona and Spezia tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spezia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hellas Verona run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Spezia 4-0 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 2.10 xG and Spezia 1.78 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.10 / defence 1.35 against Spezia attack 0.87 / defence 1.56, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 46% | Draw 21% | Spezia 33%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 83%, Spezia 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.83 PPG, Spezia 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.