Hellas Verona 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Pisa at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pisa have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 0.40 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 0, Pisa 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Pisa trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 46% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 52% | Pisa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.75 xG and Pisa 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.880 / defence 1.437 | Pisa attack 1.104 / defence 1.605. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.168. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.605 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Hellas Verona games / 23 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 37% | Draw 22% | Pisa 41%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Pisa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 70% | Pisa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 37% | Draw 22% | Pisa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Hellas Verona 1.75 / Pisa 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.880 / def 1.437 | Pisa attack 1.104 / def 1.605 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Pisa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Pisa xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Pisa kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Pisa kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Pisa?
Hellas Verona 0 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Pisa part of?
Hellas Verona vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 37% chance of winning, Pisa a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Hellas Verona and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 1 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Pisa in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.88x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
37%
2.70
22%
4.57
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.61
1.85
Pisa xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
16%
6.38
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
6%
17.22
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.85 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 12W 15D 34L from 61 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 19L across 61 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 5W 8D 17L from 30 games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 11D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.33 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Pisa in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 12W 15D 34L in their last 61 games (0.84 PPG), while Pisa have gone 23W 19D 19L in their last 61 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.77 PPG; Pisa away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and Pisa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, Pisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-0 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 47%, Pisa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hellas Verona) and 53% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 47% of games; Pisa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 60% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hellas Verona's matches and 53% of Pisa's.
Do Hellas Verona and Pisa tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hellas Verona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 24, as Hellas Verona and Pisa drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.75 xG and Pisa 1.85 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.88 / defence 1.44 against Pisa attack 1.10 / defence 1.60, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 37% | Draw 22% | Pisa 41%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 52%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.