Hellas Verona 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Frosinone meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hellas Verona have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hellas Verona have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Frosinone (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Hellas Verona, 0.70 for Frosinone — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Frosinone in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hellas Verona, 1 for Frosinone and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 54% versus Frosinone 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 42% | Frosinone 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.94 xG and Frosinone 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.867 / defence 1.151 | Frosinone attack 0.797 / defence 1.572. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.105. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.572 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Hellas Verona games / 21 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 58% | Draw 24% | Frosinone 18%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Frosinone 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Hellas Verona (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Frosinone 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 58% | Draw 24% | Frosinone 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Hellas Verona 1.94 / Frosinone 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.867 / def 1.151 | Frosinone attack 0.797 / def 1.572 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Frosinone xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Frosinone kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Frosinone?
Hellas Verona 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Frosinone part of?
Hellas Verona vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 58% chance of winning, Frosinone a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hellas Verona and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Frosinone in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.87x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.80x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.24
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.96
1.01
Frosinone xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
38.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.01 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Frosinone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 12W 15D 32L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 30W 12D 17L from 59 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.18 PPG from 28 outings (9W 6D 13L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 9W 7D 12L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.54 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 12W 15D 32L in their last 59 games (0.86 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 30W 12D 17L in their last 59 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.18 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Frosinone in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Frosinone?
From 2 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, Frosinone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Hellas Verona 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 57%, Frosinone 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 50% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 29% of games; Frosinone in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hellas Verona's games and 57% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 50% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Frosinone tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.94 xG and Frosinone 1.01 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Frosinone attack 0.80 / defence 1.57, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 58% | Draw 24% | Frosinone 18%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Frosinone 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.