Hellas Verona 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 37%, yet in-form Cremonese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hellas Verona vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to face Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 15 September 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cremonese have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cremonese are 1.00 PPG clear of Hellas Verona in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hellas Verona 1W, Cremonese 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 42% versus Cremonese 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 48% | Cremonese 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.21 xG and Cremonese 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.881 / defence 1.091 | Cremonese attack 1.003 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.071. Data: 40 Hellas Verona games / 2 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 37% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 35%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hellas Verona 30% | Cremonese 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 15 Sep 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 37% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Hellas Verona 1.21 / Cremonese 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.881 / def 1.091 | Cremonese attack 1.003 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Cremonese xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Cremonese kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 15 September 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Hellas Verona 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Cremonese part of?
Hellas Verona vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 37% chance of winning, Cremonese a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hellas Verona and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Cremonese in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.00x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 40/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.59
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.38
1.17
Cremonese xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.17 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hellas Verona come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 8D 22L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.70 PPG from 40 outings (18W 14D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hellas Verona's home form reads 4W 5D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.68 points per game from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.72 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 70%.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 8D 22L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 18W 14D 8L in their last 40 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.89 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Cremonese have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Cremonese?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 37%, Cremonese 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Hellas Verona and 68% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 63% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Hellas Verona's matches and 68% of Cremonese's.
Do Hellas Verona and Cremonese tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hellas Verona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Cremonese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.21 xG and Cremonese 1.17 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Cremonese attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 37% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 35%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 48%, Cremonese 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.