Hellas Verona 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Bologna encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bologna make the trip to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to face Hellas Verona in Serie A (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 9 March 2025 at 11:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Hellas Verona have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bologna (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Bologna have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 0.80 PPG clear of Hellas Verona over their recent games (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Hellas Verona, 2 for Bologna and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2024, ended Hellas Verona 3–2 Bologna — a Hellas Verona win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 59%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 51% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 54% | Bologna 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.99 xG and Bologna 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.729 / defence 1.409 | Bologna attack 0.924 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.228. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.409 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 65 games and Bologna's last 65.

Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 29% | Bologna 49%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.68 | Draw 3.43 | Bologna 2.02. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 30% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights