Hellas Verona 1-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi: 5W 1D 2L from 8 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's away record: 7W 1D 0L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (2.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hellas Verona 1.80 PPG, Atalanta 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Atalanta in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 81% and Atalanta 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 75% | Atalanta 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.44 xG and Atalanta 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.171 / defence 1.011 | Atalanta attack 1.201 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.433. Atalanta have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Hellas Verona games / 16 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 32% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 45%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | Atalanta 2.22. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 75% | Atalanta 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 32% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Hellas Verona 1.44 / Atalanta 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.171 / def 1.011 | Atalanta attack 1.201 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Atalanta xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta part of?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 32% chance of winning, Atalanta a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hellas Verona and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Atalanta in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Atalanta (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 1.17x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
32%
3.14
23%
4.27
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.18
1.74
Atalanta xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.74 for Atalanta, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 5D 5L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 2.12 PPG from 16 outings (10W 4D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Hellas Verona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.75 points per game from 8 outings (7W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.12 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.19 scored and 1.19 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; Atalanta in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 games (1.44 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 10W 4D 2L in their last 16 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 2.00 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Atalanta won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
7
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Atalanta have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hellas Verona at 75%, Atalanta at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Hellas Verona and 75% for Atalanta. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hellas Verona's games and 75% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Hellas Verona's matches and 75% of Atalanta's.
Do Hellas Verona and Atalanta tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Hellas Verona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Hellas Verona 1-2 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.44 xG and Atalanta 1.74 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.17 / defence 1.01 against Atalanta attack 1.20 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 32% | Draw 23% | Atalanta 45%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 75%, Atalanta 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.