Hellas Verona 0-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 September 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hellas Verona 1.10 PPG, Atalanta 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 1, Atalanta 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Atalanta winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Atalanta in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 54% versus Atalanta 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 40% | Atalanta 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.22 xG and Atalanta 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.849 / defence 0.938 | Atalanta attack 1.122 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.111. Data: 43 Hellas Verona games / 43 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 36% | Draw 31% | Atalanta 33%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Atalanta 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 50% | Atalanta 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 36% | Draw 31% | Atalanta 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Hellas Verona 1.22 / Atalanta 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.849 / def 0.938 | Atalanta attack 1.122 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Atalanta xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Hellas Verona 0 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta part of?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 36% chance of winning, Atalanta a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hellas Verona and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
Record (4 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 3W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Atalanta in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Atalanta (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.85x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.24
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.39
1.17
Atalanta xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.17 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 11D 22L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.70 PPG from 43 outings (22W 7D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 7W 4D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.77 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Atalanta
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 11D 22L in their last 43 games (0.95 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 22W 7D 14L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.25 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Atalanta won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
7
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Atalanta have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 55%, Atalanta 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 50% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Hellas Verona's games and 55% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 50% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Atalanta tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atalanta defy the odds to beat Hellas Verona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.22 xG and Atalanta 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against Atalanta attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 36% | Draw 31% | Atalanta 33%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 40%, Atalanta 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atalanta's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.