Genoa 2-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 0.60 PPG, Fiorentina 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fiorentina, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Genoa.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Fiorentina winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fiorentina have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fiorentina trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Fiorentina 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.74 xG and Fiorentina 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.603 / defence 1.178 | Fiorentina attack 0.808 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.052. Genoa's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Genoa games / 48 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 25% | Draw 37% | Fiorentina 39%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | Fiorentina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Genoa's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Fiorentina 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 25% | Draw 37% | Fiorentina 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Genoa 0.74 / Fiorentina 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.603 / def 1.178 | Fiorentina attack 0.808 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Fiorentina xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Fiorentina kick off?
Genoa vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Genoa 2 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Genoa vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Fiorentina part of?
Genoa vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 25% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Genoa and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
Record (6 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 5W.
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.60x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
25%
4.06
37%
2.73
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.74
1.00
Fiorentina xG
4.06
25%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Genoa and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Genoa and 1.00 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 16D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.44 PPG from 48 outings (19W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 5W 9D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.17 points per game from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.40 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.00 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2022, when Fiorentina won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Fiorentina have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 42%, Fiorentina 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Genoa) and 54% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 42% of games; Fiorentina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Genoa's recent matches and 54% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Genoa's recent games and 54% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Genoa and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 11, as Genoa and Fiorentina drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.74 xG and Fiorentina 1.00 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.60 / defence 1.18 against Fiorentina attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 25% | Draw 37% | Fiorentina 39%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Fiorentina 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.