Genoa 0-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 0W 7D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Empoli have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Genoa, 0 for Empoli and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genoa 52% and Empoli 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 48% | Empoli 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.70 xG and Empoli 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.529 / defence 1.034 | Empoli attack 0.776 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.372. Genoa's attack strength of 0.529 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Genoa games / 27 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 20% | Draw 38% | Empoli 42%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 5.00 | Draw 2.63 | Empoli 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 30% | Empoli 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 20% | Draw 38% | Empoli 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Genoa 0.70 / Empoli 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.529 / def 1.034 | Empoli attack 0.776 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Empoli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Empoli xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Empoli kick off?
Genoa vs Empoli kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Empoli?
Genoa 0 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Genoa vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Empoli part of?
Genoa vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 20% chance of winning, Empoli a 42% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Genoa and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 1 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Genoa and Empoli in?
Genoa (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Empoli (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.53x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.78x) against Genoa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
20%
4.92
38%
2.66
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.80
1.10
Empoli xG
4.92
20%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.77
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 18.2 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Genoa and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Genoa and 1.10 for Empoli, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 27 games, going 1W 14D 12L for 0.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.15 PPG from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Genoa's home form reads 0W 7D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.54 points per game from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.48 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Empoli in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 14D 12L in their last 27 games (0.63 PPG), while Empoli have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.54 PPG; Empoli away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Genoa
5
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Genoa 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Empoli?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 46%, Empoli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Genoa) and 38% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Empoli in 31%; Genoa have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Genoa's recent matches and 54% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Genoa's recent games and 38% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Empoli tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Empoli in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Empoli finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.70 xG and Empoli 1.10 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Empoli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.53 / defence 1.03 against Empoli attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 20% | Draw 38% | Empoli 42%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 48%, Empoli 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Empoli's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Empoli arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.