Genoa 0-0 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atalanta make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 0W 3D 5L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atalanta (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 0L across 9 road games this term (2.78 PPG). They are averaging 2.22 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atalanta are 1.90 PPG clear of Genoa in recent Serie A fixtures (2.30 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Genoa have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Atalanta in 78%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Atalanta — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genoa 61% and Atalanta 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genoa 67% | Atalanta 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.81 xG and Atalanta 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.685 / defence 1.415 | Atalanta attack 1.181 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.459. Genoa's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Genoa games / 18 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 10% | Draw 16% | Atalanta 73%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 10.00 | Draw 6.25 | Atalanta 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 62% | Atalanta 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 10% | Draw 16% | Atalanta 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 51% | xG Genoa 0.81 / Atalanta 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.685 / def 1.415 | Atalanta attack 1.181 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
2.44
Atalanta xG
51%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Atalanta kick off?
Genoa vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Atalanta?
Genoa 0 - 0 Atalanta.
Where is Genoa vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Atalanta part of?
Genoa vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 10% chance of winning, Atalanta a 73% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Genoa and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Atalanta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Atalanta in?
Genoa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Atalanta (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.69x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.18x) against Genoa's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 2.44.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
10%
9.53
16%
6.14
73%
1.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
0 – 3
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.25
2.44
Atalanta xG
9.53
10%
Home win
6.14
16%
Draw
1.37
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
9%
11.45
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
1%
109.15
33%
3.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Genoa and 2.44 for Atalanta, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Genoa have picked up 0.56 PPG on a 1W 7D 10L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta's form line: 11W 4D 3L from 18 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L).
On the road, Atalanta have gone 7W 1D 0L from 8 away games — 2.75 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 2.06 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Atalanta in 78%.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 7D 10L in their last 18 games (0.56 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 11W 4D 3L in their last 18 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.38 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 5-1 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Atalanta?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Atalanta have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Genoa, 75% for Atalanta — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Genoa and 75% for Atalanta. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Genoa's games and 75% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Genoa's matches and 75% of Atalanta's.
Do Genoa and Atalanta tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Atalanta finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.81 xG and Atalanta 2.44 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Atalanta landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.69 / defence 1.42 against Atalanta attack 1.18 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 10% | Draw 16% | Atalanta 73%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 67%, Atalanta 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atalanta's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.