Fiorentina 1-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fiorentina at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Udinese encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Udinese in Serie A (matchday 17). Kick-off: Monday 23 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Fiorentina have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Fiorentina have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Udinese (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Udinese have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Fiorentina's favour (2.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fiorentina's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) — Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Udinese in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Udinese and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2024, ended Fiorentina 2–2 Udinese — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).

Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 59%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Udinese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 51% | Udinese 40%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 59% of cases while Fiorentina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.87 xG and Udinese 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.261 / defence 0.857 | Udinese attack 0.988 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.331. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack rating of 1.261 — their 1.87 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 53 games and Udinese's last 54.

Result probabilities: Fiorentina 55% | Draw 23% | Udinese 23%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.83 | Draw 4.43 | Udinese 4.39. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fiorentina's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 80% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 60% (last 10 away games).

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