Fiorentina 1-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Torino travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina in Serie A (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fiorentina have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Torino stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Torino have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Fiorentina are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Torino and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Fiorentina 1–0 Torino — a Fiorentina win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Torino in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus Torino 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 54% | Torino 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.54 xG and Torino 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.111 / defence 1.045 | Torino attack 0.937 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.305. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 57 games and Torino's last 58.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 42% | Draw 28% | Torino 30%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.38 | Draw 3.60 | Torino 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Fiorentina's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 70% (last 10 home games) | Torino 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 42% | Draw 28% | Torino 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Fiorentina 1.54 / Torino 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.111 / def 1.045 | Torino attack 0.937 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Torino xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fiorentina vs Torino FAQs
What time does Fiorentina vs Torino kick off?
Fiorentina vs Torino kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Torino?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Torino.
Where is Fiorentina vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Torino part of?
Fiorentina vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 42% chance of winning, Torino a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fiorentina and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fiorentina vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.11x the league average against Torino's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fiorentina's last 57 games and Torino's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.60
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.81
1.28
Torino xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fiorentina vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.28 for Torino, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 26W 14D 17L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Torino's form line: 18W 20D 19L from 57 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.61 PPG, Torino on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 28 home games (15W 7D 6L).
On the road, Torino have gone 8W 8D 12L from their last 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 0.98 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Torino
Blended
Fiorentina (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fiorentina
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Fiorentina vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Fiorentina and Torino in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 26W 14D 17L in their last 57 games (1.61 PPG), while Torino have gone 18W 20D 19L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Torino away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.86 PPG; Torino away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Torino in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Jan 2022, when Torino won Torino 4-0 Fiorentina.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Torino specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
5
Draws
3
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Fiorentina vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Torino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fiorentina have won 2, Torino have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Fiorentina 1-2 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 64%, Torino 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Fiorentina) and 39% (Torino). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Torino in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fiorentina vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fiorentina and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 43% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fiorentina and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fiorentina's matches and 39% of Torino's.
Do Fiorentina and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 54% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 21, as Fiorentina and Torino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.54 xG and Torino 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Torino attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 42% | Draw 28% | Torino 30%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 54%, Torino 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.61 PPG, Torino 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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