Fiorentina 0-0 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Napoli make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Napoli have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Napoli have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Napoli are 0.60 PPG clear of Fiorentina in recent Serie A fixtures (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fiorentina lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Napoli — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 52% versus Napoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 60% | Napoli 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.62 xG and Napoli 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.188 / defence 1.058 | Napoli attack 1.530 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.147. Napoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.530 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Fiorentina games / 40 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 33% | Draw 25% | Napoli 42%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Napoli 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 20% | Napoli 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 33% | Draw 25% | Napoli 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Fiorentina 1.62 / Napoli 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.188 / def 1.058 | Napoli attack 1.530 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Napoli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Napoli xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Napoli kick off?
Fiorentina vs Napoli kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Fiorentina 0 - 0 Napoli.
Where is Fiorentina vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Napoli part of?
Fiorentina vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 33% chance of winning, Napoli a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fiorentina and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Napoli?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Napoli 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Napoli in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Napoli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.19) and Napoli's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.53x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
33%
3.04
25%
4.06
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.48
1.86
Napoli xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.40
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
5%
19.46
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.86 for Napoli, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 20W 6D 14L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Napoli's form line: 26W 7D 7L from 40 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fiorentina.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 2.20 PPG from 20 outings (14W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Napoli have gone 14W 4D 2L from 20 away games — 2.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 2.08 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Early Season
Napoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Napoli in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 20W 6D 14L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Napoli have gone 26W 7D 7L in their last 40 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.20 PPG; Napoli away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Napoli in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-3 on 4 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Napoli have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 40%, Napoli 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fiorentina and 60% for Napoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Napoli in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 55% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fiorentina's matches and 60% of Napoli's.
Do Fiorentina and Napoli tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Napoli in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 3, as Fiorentina and Napoli drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.62 xG and Napoli 1.86 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Napoli landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against Napoli attack 1.53 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 33% | Draw 25% | Napoli 42%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 60%, Napoli 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Napoli's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.