Fiorentina 0-4 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 36%, yet in-form Lazio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fiorentina vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Lazio at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Lazio's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0, Lazio 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Lazio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lazio in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 50% versus Lazio 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 54% | Lazio 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.26 xG and Lazio 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.051 / defence 0.831 | Lazio attack 1.217 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.153. Lazio have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Fiorentina games / 46 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 36% | Draw 33% | Lazio 31%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Lazio 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lazio (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 20% | Lazio 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 36% | Draw 33% | Lazio 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Fiorentina 1.26 / Lazio 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.051 / def 0.831 | Lazio attack 1.217 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lazio xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Lazio kick off?
Fiorentina vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Fiorentina 0 - 4 Lazio.
Where is Fiorentina vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Lazio part of?
Fiorentina vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 36% chance of winning, Lazio a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fiorentina and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lazio?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 0 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and Lazio in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Lazio (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Lazio's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
36%
2.79
33%
3.05
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.42
1.17
Lazio xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.17 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 21W 8D 17L from 46 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 11L across 46 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.54 PPG, Lazio on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 14W 4D 4L from 22 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lazio's away record stands at 9W 6D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 2.04 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Lazio in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 21W 8D 17L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while Lazio have gone 23W 12D 11L in their last 46 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Lazio away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.09 PPG; Lazio away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lazio in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Lazio runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fiorentina
2
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 4, Lazio have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Fiorentina 1-0 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 36%, Lazio 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Fiorentina and 77% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 59% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Fiorentina's matches and 77% of Lazio's.
Do Fiorentina and Lazio tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lazio in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lazio run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Fiorentina 0-4 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.26 xG and Lazio 1.17 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 0.83 against Lazio attack 1.22 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 36% | Draw 33% | Lazio 31%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lazio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 54%, Lazio 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.54 PPG, Lazio 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.