Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Genoa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Genoa's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fiorentina 1.60 PPG, Genoa 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fiorentina: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Genoa, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fiorentina and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 58% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 58% | Genoa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.04 xG and Genoa 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.878 / defence 0.845 | Genoa attack 0.902 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.106. Data: 73 Fiorentina games / 73 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 39% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Genoa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 50% | Genoa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 39% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Fiorentina 1.04 / Genoa 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.878 / def 0.845 | Genoa attack 0.902 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Genoa xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Genoa kick off?
Fiorentina vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Fiorentina 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Fiorentina vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Genoa part of?
Fiorentina vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 39% chance of winning, Genoa a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Fiorentina and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Record (7 meetings): Fiorentina 5W | Draws 2 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Genoa in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Genoa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.88) and Genoa's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
39%
2.55
32%
3.10
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
1.89
0.84
Genoa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.84 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 27W 21D 25L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 20W 23D 30L from 73 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.40 PPG, Genoa on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.64 PPG from 36 outings (16W 11D 9L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 9W 12D 15L from 36 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.05 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Genoa in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 27W 21D 25L in their last 73 games (1.40 PPG), while Genoa have gone 20W 23D 30L in their last 73 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Genoa away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.64 PPG; Genoa away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Genoa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2022, when Fiorentina won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 58%, Genoa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fiorentina) and 44% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fiorentina's games and 53% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fiorentina's recent games and 44% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Genoa tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Genoa in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.04 xG and Genoa 0.84 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against Genoa attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 39% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 58%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.40 PPG, Genoa 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.