Fiorentina 2-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Genoa travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina in Serie A (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fiorentina stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fiorentina's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Genoa's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fiorentina 1.40 PPG, Genoa 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Fiorentina: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Genoa, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2024, ended Fiorentina 1–0 Genoa — a Fiorentina win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Fiorentina and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 56% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 54% | Genoa 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fiorentina surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Genoa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Genoa surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Fiorentina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.39 xG and Genoa 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.054 / defence 1.026 | Genoa attack 0.777 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.324. Genoa's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 59 games and Genoa's last 60.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 42% | Draw 32% | Genoa 26%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.37 | Draw 3.15 | Genoa 3.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Fiorentina 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 70% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 42% | Draw 32% | Genoa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Fiorentina 1.39 / Genoa 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.054 / def 1.026 | Genoa attack 0.777 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Genoa xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Fiorentina vs Genoa kick off?
Fiorentina vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Fiorentina 2 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Fiorentina vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Genoa part of?
Fiorentina vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 42% chance of winning, Genoa a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fiorentina and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fiorentina vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.05) and Genoa's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fiorentina's last 59 games and Genoa's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.15
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.45
1.06
Genoa xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.06 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 27W 15D 17L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 18W 21D 20L from 59 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.63 PPG, Genoa on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 8D 6L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 8W 9D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.08 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Fiorentina (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fiorentina
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Fiorentina and Genoa in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 27W 15D 17L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while Genoa have gone 18W 21D 20L in their last 59 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Genoa away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.83 PPG; Genoa away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Jan 2022, when Fiorentina won Fiorentina 6-0 Genoa.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
3
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Fiorentina have won 5, Genoa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 66%, Genoa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Fiorentina) and 41% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fiorentina and Genoa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Fiorentina's games and 48% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fiorentina and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fiorentina's matches and 41% of Genoa's.
Do Fiorentina and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 52% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Genoa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Genoa 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.39 xG and Genoa 1.06 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Genoa attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 42% | Draw 32% | Genoa 26%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 54%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.63 PPG, Genoa 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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