Empoli 0-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lazio make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Empoli (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lazio have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lazio away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Empoli against 1.90 for Lazio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Empoli lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 59% versus Lazio 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 47% | Lazio 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.11 xG and Lazio 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.129 / defence 1.027 | Lazio attack 1.050 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.188. Lazio's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Empoli games / 75 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 28% | Lazio 40%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Lazio 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 50% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 28% | Lazio 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Empoli 1.11 / Lazio 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.129 / def 1.027 | Lazio attack 1.050 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Lazio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Lazio xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Lazio kick off?
Empoli vs Lazio kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Lazio?
Empoli 0 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Empoli vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Lazio part of?
Empoli vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 32% chance of winning, Lazio a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Empoli and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lazio?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 2 | Lazio 1W.
What form are Empoli and Lazio in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Lazio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (1.13) and Lazio's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.05x) against Empoli's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.63
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.39
1.28
Lazio xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Empoli and 1.28 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli's recent record stands at 20W 24D 31L from 75 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 39W 18D 18L across 75 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 12W 9D 16L from 37 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 18W 8D 11L across 37 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.80 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Lazio in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 20W 24D 31L in their last 75 games (1.12 PPG), while Lazio have gone 39W 18D 18L in their last 75 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.22 PPG; Lazio away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Empoli or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Lazio in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Empoli
2
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lazio?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Lazio have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Empoli 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 65%, Lazio 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Empoli) and 60% (Lazio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Empoli's recent matches and 43% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Empoli's matches and 60% of Lazio's.
Do Empoli and Lazio tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lazio in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Empoli 0-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.11 xG and Lazio 1.28 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.13 / defence 1.03 against Lazio attack 1.05 / defence 0.73, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 32% | Draw 28% | Lazio 40%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 47%, Lazio 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.