Empoli 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 35%, yet in-form Genoa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Empoli vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Empoli and Genoa meet at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Genoa are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Empoli 0W, Genoa 0W, 3D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Genoa — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Genoa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 37% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.19 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.826 / defence 1.230 | Genoa attack 0.873 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.090. Data: 60 Empoli games / 22 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 35% | Draw 30% | Genoa 35%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Genoa 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | Genoa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 35% | Draw 30% | Genoa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Empoli 1.19 / Genoa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.826 / def 1.230 | Genoa attack 0.873 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Genoa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Genoa kick off?
Empoli vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Genoa?
Empoli 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Empoli vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Genoa part of?
Empoli vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 35% chance of winning, Genoa a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Empoli and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Genoa?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 3 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Empoli and Genoa in?
Empoli (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Genoa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Empoli's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.87x) against Empoli's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.33
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.36
1.17
Genoa xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Empoli and 1.17 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 18D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.70 PPG from 60 outings (28W 18D 14L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 10W 6D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.28 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Genoa in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 14W 18D 28L in their last 60 games (1.00 PPG), while Genoa have gone 28W 18D 14L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.20 PPG; Genoa away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Empoli or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Genoa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Empoli
5
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Genoa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Genoa 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 33%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Empoli) and 50% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 43% of games; Genoa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Empoli's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Empoli's recent games and 50% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Genoa tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Genoa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.19 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.23 against Genoa attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 35% | Draw 30% | Genoa 35%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 37%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.